The VUCAlity of projects: A new approach to assess a project risk in a complex world

Thordur Vikingur Fridgeirsson; Helgi Thor Ingason; Haukur Ingi Jonasson; Bára Hlín Kristjánsdóttir

doi:10.3390/su13073808

The VUCAlity of projects: A new approach to assess a project risk in a complex world

Thordur Vikingur Fridgeirsson^*, Helgi Thor Ingason, Haukur Ingi Jonasson, Bára Hlín Kristjánsdóttir

^*Corresponding author for this work

Department of Engineering

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

1 Citation (Scopus)

Abstract

The “projectification” ofWestern societies has been consolidated by a number of studies and now calls for various adaptations in the managerial framework of project management. Faster rates of change in complex environments antagonize the traditional risk assessment approach and demand a more dynamic approach. A framework commonly used for understanding the challenges of complexity in the modern business environment is VUCA. VUCA stands for volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity. In order to mitigate the impact of a VUCA environment on complex projects, organizations and project leaders need to know the type and severity of challenges they are dealing with in each unique project. This study explores the VUCA framework in the context of projects and suggests that the VUCA approach can enhance the conventional risk assessment procedure. The study also drafts an accessible diagnostic tool to assess the VUCA dimensions a project is facing, so that project managers can effectively isolate “fat tail” risk events. The tool is tested on five complex projects in the manufacturing industry and its effectiveness is discussed.

Original language	English
Article number	3808
Number of pages	13
Journal	Sustainability (Switzerland)
Volume	13
Issue number	7
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.3390/su13073808
Publication status	Published - 30 Mar 2021

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
This research did not receive any external funding. It is however linked to the DecisionShip Ahoy project that is co-funded by the Erasmus+ program of the European Union [40]. The authors would like to acknowledge their colleagues from the DecisionShip Ahoy project, co-funded by the Erasmus+ program of the European Union [40]. The European Commission support to produce this publication does not constitute an endorsement of the contents which reflect the authors? views only, and the Commission cannot be held responsible for any use which may be made of the information contained therein.

Publisher Copyright:
© 2021 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland.

Other keywords

Decisions
Project preparation
Risk assessment
Risk management
VUCA

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Cite this

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abstract = "The “projectification” ofWestern societies has been consolidated by a number of studies and now calls for various adaptations in the managerial framework of project management. Faster rates of change in complex environments antagonize the traditional risk assessment approach and demand a more dynamic approach. A framework commonly used for understanding the challenges of complexity in the modern business environment is VUCA. VUCA stands for volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity. In order to mitigate the impact of a VUCA environment on complex projects, organizations and project leaders need to know the type and severity of challenges they are dealing with in each unique project. This study explores the VUCA framework in the context of projects and suggests that the VUCA approach can enhance the conventional risk assessment procedure. The study also drafts an accessible diagnostic tool to assess the VUCA dimensions a project is facing, so that project managers can effectively isolate “fat tail” risk events. The tool is tested on five complex projects in the manufacturing industry and its effectiveness is discussed.",

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The VUCAlity of projects: A new approach to assess a project risk in a complex world

Abstract

Bibliographical note

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