Global phosphorus supply chain dynamics: Assessing regional impact to 2050

Claudiu Nedelciu; Kristin Vala Ragnarsdottir; Peter Schlyter; Ingrid Stjernquist

doi:10.1016/j.gfs.2020.100426

Global phosphorus supply chain dynamics: Assessing regional impact to 2050

Claudiu Nedelciu, Kristin Vala Ragnarsdottir, Peter Schlyter, Ingrid Stjernquist

University of Iceland

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

2 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Phosphorus (P) availability is essential for global food security. A system dynamics model running from 1961 to 2050 was built for this study, linking global P supply to social, economic and environmental dynamics at regional level. Simulation results show that phosphate rock (PR) production needs to double by 2050 compared to present levels, in order to match regional P requirements. South Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, and Sub-Saharan Africa are regions highly dependent on phosphate imports, yet it is here that most of the population growth and future P requirement will occur. Climate impact, eutrophication and phosphogypsum production are some of the main negative environmental dynamics that are becoming increasingly challenging in the coming decades.

Original language	English
Number of pages	100426
Journal	Global Food Security
Volume	26
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gfs.2020.100426
Publication status	Published - Sept 2020

Other keywords

Fertilizers
Food security
Phosphorus
Population growth
Regional
System dynamics modelling
Fæðuöryggi
Fosfór
Fólksfjölgun
Áburður

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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10.1016/j.gfs.2020.100426

https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11815/2206

Cite this

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title = "Global phosphorus supply chain dynamics: Assessing regional impact to 2050",

abstract = "Phosphorus (P) availability is essential for global food security. A system dynamics model running from 1961 to 2050 was built for this study, linking global P supply to social, economic and environmental dynamics at regional level. Simulation results show that phosphate rock (PR) production needs to double by 2050 compared to present levels, in order to match regional P requirements. South Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, and Sub-Saharan Africa are regions highly dependent on phosphate imports, yet it is here that most of the population growth and future P requirement will occur. Climate impact, eutrophication and phosphogypsum production are some of the main negative environmental dynamics that are becoming increasingly challenging in the coming decades.",

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author = "Claudiu Nedelciu and Ragnarsdottir, {Kristin Vala} and Peter Schlyter and Ingrid Stjernquist",

year = "2020",

month = sep,

doi = "10.1016/j.gfs.2020.100426",

language = "English",

volume = "26",

journal = "Global Food Security",

issn = "2211-9124",

publisher = "Elsevier B.V.",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Global phosphorus supply chain dynamics: Assessing regional impact to 2050

AU - Nedelciu, Claudiu

AU - Ragnarsdottir, Kristin Vala

AU - Schlyter, Peter

AU - Stjernquist, Ingrid

PY - 2020/9

Y1 - 2020/9

N2 - Phosphorus (P) availability is essential for global food security. A system dynamics model running from 1961 to 2050 was built for this study, linking global P supply to social, economic and environmental dynamics at regional level. Simulation results show that phosphate rock (PR) production needs to double by 2050 compared to present levels, in order to match regional P requirements. South Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, and Sub-Saharan Africa are regions highly dependent on phosphate imports, yet it is here that most of the population growth and future P requirement will occur. Climate impact, eutrophication and phosphogypsum production are some of the main negative environmental dynamics that are becoming increasingly challenging in the coming decades.

AB - Phosphorus (P) availability is essential for global food security. A system dynamics model running from 1961 to 2050 was built for this study, linking global P supply to social, economic and environmental dynamics at regional level. Simulation results show that phosphate rock (PR) production needs to double by 2050 compared to present levels, in order to match regional P requirements. South Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, and Sub-Saharan Africa are regions highly dependent on phosphate imports, yet it is here that most of the population growth and future P requirement will occur. Climate impact, eutrophication and phosphogypsum production are some of the main negative environmental dynamics that are becoming increasingly challenging in the coming decades.

KW - Fertilizers

KW - Food security

KW - Phosphorus

KW - Population growth

KW - Regional

KW - System dynamics modelling

KW - Fæðuöryggi

KW - Fosfór

KW - Fólksfjölgun

KW - Áburður

KW - Fertilizers

KW - Food security

KW - Phosphorus

KW - Population growth

KW - Regional

KW - System dynamics modelling

KW - Fæðuöryggi

KW - Fosfór

KW - Fólksfjölgun

KW - Áburður

U2 - 10.1016/j.gfs.2020.100426

DO - 10.1016/j.gfs.2020.100426

M3 - Article

SN - 2211-9124

VL - 26

JO - Global Food Security

JF - Global Food Security

ER -

Global phosphorus supply chain dynamics: Assessing regional impact to 2050

Abstract

Other keywords

UN SDGs

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