Diminishing warming effects on plant phenology over time

Chunyan Lu, Kees Jan van Groenigen, Mark A.K. Gillespie, Robert D. Hollister, Eric Post, Elisabeth J. Cooper, Jeffrey M. Welker, Yixuan Huang, Xueting Min, Jianghui Chen, Ingibjörg Svala Jónsdóttir, Marguerite Mauritz, Nicoletta Cannone, Susan M. Natali, Edward Schuur, Ulf Molau, Tao Yan, Hao Wang, Jin Sheng He, Huiying Liu*

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract

Plant phenology, the timing of recurrent biological events, shows key and complex response to climate warming, with consequences for ecosystem functions and services. A key challenge for predicting plant phenology under future climates is to determine whether the phenological changes will persist with more intensive and long-term warming. Here, we conducted a meta-analysis of 103 experimental warming studies around the globe to investigate the responses of four phenophases – leaf-out, first flowering, last flowering, and leaf coloring. We showed that warming advanced leaf-out and flowering but delayed leaf coloring across herbaceous and woody plants. As the magnitude of warming increased, the response of most plant phenophases gradually leveled off for herbaceous plants, while phenology responded in proportion to warming in woody plants. We also found that the experimental effects of warming on plant phenology diminished over time across all phenophases. Specifically, the rate of changes in first flowering for herbaceous species, as well as leaf-out and leaf coloring for woody species, decreased as the experimental duration extended. Together, these results suggest that the real-world impact of global warming on plant phenology will diminish over time as temperatures continue to increase.

Original languageEnglish
JournalNew Phytologist
DOIs
Publication statusAccepted/In press - 2024

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© 2024 The Author(s). New Phytologist © 2024 New Phytologist Foundation.

Other keywords

  • climate change
  • flowering phenology
  • leaf coloring
  • leaf-out
  • long-term experiments
  • warming

Fingerprint

Dive into the research topics of 'Diminishing warming effects on plant phenology over time'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

Cite this